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If a disease was coming to the US, and 600 people were expected to die, what should the President do?



Program A: 200 people will be saved

Program B: 1/3 chance that 600 people will be saved; 2/3 chance that no lives will be saved

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2 Comments
Craig
2008-09-29 13:22:35 ET

The problem with Program A is that if you choose that path, then you have to choose which 200 make it, a politically untenable problem. Go for all or nothing and it is much easier to convince people you tried and lost, (if you do) rather than playing favorites.

Dave Munger
2008-09-29 13:26:39 ET

That's not really the premise of the problem, Craig. No one is going to decide who lives or who dies. In Program A, a random 200 people will be saved. In Program B, either a random selection of 600 people will die, or no one will die.


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